All rights reserved. Our player-based RAPTOR forecast doesnt account for wins and losses; it is based entirely on our NBA player projections, which estimate each players future performance based on the trajectory of similar NBA players. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: < 0.1%. The Mavs have hovered around the fringe-playoff territory for most of the year but have kicked it up a notch and are now sixth in the West. The Suns were +1600 to hoist the Larry OBrien Trophy just one month ago, sliding to their lowest position since before the 2021 Finals appearance. Milwaukee Bucks (72) This is not to say there arent any measurable factors breaking in Golden States favor with this matchup. Still, the Grizzlies are a deep squad. (And thats without directly considering the health factor going into the series. Nate McMillan was dismissed in Atlanta on Feb. 21 and replaced by former Jazz coach Quin Snyder. The Wizards beat the Nets for the second time in five games with Rui Hachimura having his best game of the season with 20 points. During the regular season, Boston had a much better point differential than Golden State on both a per-game (+7.3 versus +5.5) and per-100-possession (+7.5 versus +5.6) basis. Atlanta's big stretch under McMillan that led them to the 2020-21 conference finals showed he can push the right buttons down the stretch. Most impactful moment during the season's first half: Julius Randle running down the floor during a Jan. 6 win over the Celtics with his thumb down in the direction of the Madison Square Garden faithful symbolized the Knicks' entire first half. And yet, with the Miami Heat currently in a blue state of mind, these next four weeks figure to go a long way toward determining whether it will be playoffs or play-in after the April 9 regular-season finale. History tells us that the team with home-court advantage in the NBA Finals wins about 72 percent of the time, which would seem to confer a massive advantage on Golden State in this series. *This post was completed before the conclusion of the Clippers and Warriors games went final Tuesday night. The Bucks overtook the Celtics for the Easts top spot, despite three-time All-Star Khris Middleton playing just 20 games and still rounding into form. Do Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons actually take the court all season? This seems to be the approach taken by most Eastern Conference contenders. RAPTOR foresees a significant drop-off from that group of five teams to the Easts four play-in squads, as well as from the play-in group to the also-rans. The Nuggets projection also greatly benefits from the returns of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr., as well as more minutes for Bones Hyland and the offseason addition of Bruce Brown (FROM? After all, the last time Atlanta fired its coach in the middle of the season, it went to the Eastern Conference Finals. A big part of that resurgence has also been the play of Kawhi Leonard, who is once again reminding the league that he is one of the best players of this generation when at the top of his game. Pivot point for the rest of the season: After their blazing start in October and November, the Wizards looked like a team ready for the season to end just days before the trade deadline. Suddenly, the season has been infused with a massive burst of energy and excitement. Even if you dont like or believe our default forecast based on RAPTOR player ratings (which, again, I dont necessarily blame you), the Celtics are also 68 percent favorites according to our classic Elo-based predictions. Dallas is currently +1600 to win the championship a significant upgrade from +2500, where they were before the trade. . Before the Irving trade, sportsbooks had Dallas anywhere from +2500 to +3300 to win the NBA title. The Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks took huge swings at the deadline to try to stay in the hunt. The Suns and Mavericks had the two biggest deadline deals of the season, acquiring Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, respectively, from the Brooklyn Nets. If you were to lay down $100, youd see a payout of $650 you get your $100 back, plus your earnings of $550. teams in that category: the defending champion Golden State Warriors, the reigning Eastern Conference champion Boston Celtics and (in alphabetical order) the Atlanta Hawks, Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Memphis Grizzlies, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers, Phoenix Suns and Toronto Raptors. Perhaps the most interesting move is the Atlanta Hawks, who have moved closer to the top of the table despite firing their coach this month. You can view updated NBA championship odds and more online sports betting opportunities at the BetMGM online sportsbook. Similarly, the Warriors have home-court advantage for the Finals by virtue of their superior record (despite being a lower seed within their own conference). Phoenix which made the NBA Finals just two seasons ago without Durant has been the more popular betting target of the two. Something else worth monitoring: whether fans will be allowed in the building soon, as the Raptors have been playing in empty arenas for weeks now. The model shows the Boston Celtics with the best odds at 43 percent, followed by the Dallas Mavericks (35 percent) and the Miami Heat (15 percent). FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: < 0.1%. The Joel Embiid-James Harden duo has been excellent. The U!). Based on the odds from Caesars Sportsbook, which list Golden State as -160 (and Boston as +140), we can infer that the bookmakers consider the Warriors a 60 percent favorite to win the title. But the market is bullish on a Lakers team that appears to be more rounded out, with the Lakers ascending up the table from +5000 at the end of January to +2800 immediately after the deadline moves. Right now, sportsbooks have the Boston Celtics, owners of the best record in basketball and the defendingEastern Conference champions, as the favorites in the NBA Finals odds for this season. After Boston, the model sees a group of five teams of roughly similar quality in the Hawks, Heat, 76ers, Raptors and Bucks. 1. Download data. What's unclear is whether they can hit enough shots to truly take advantage of it. Now, as one of four teams left in the NBA playoffs, it looks like Golden State will have to prove skeptics wrong once more after a recent projection model shows the Warriors with the least-likely chance to hoist the Larry OBrien Trophy when all is said and done. The model shows the Boston Celtics with the best odds at 43 percent, followed by the Dallas Mavericks (35 percent) and the Miami Heat (15 percent). Start with this eyebrow-raising fact: the FiveThirtyEight model has the Boston Celtics as the NBA championship favorites. However, that scenario seems less and less likely at this point. The. The Clippers are such a wildcard. The Suns were +1600 to hoist the Larry OBrien Trophy just one month ago, sliding to their lowest position since before the 2021 Finals appearance. NBA.com is part of Warner Media, LLCs Turner Sports & Entertainment Digital Network, *Translations are limited to select pages. While John Collins' recent foot injury that kept him out of the final three games of the break is something to monitor, the Hawks have shown they are capable of going on winning streaks under coach Nate McMillan both last season and this one. Playoff and title projections: Memphis has dropped five of eight during that time. All boast championship odds between 5 and 7 percent and are projected for between 49 and 51 wins with point differentials between plus-3.0 and plus-3.8 per game. Odds & lines subject to change. As of February 21, about 14% of all Western Conference . Steph Curry has only played in 38 games and is currently out of the lineup with multiple leg injuries. They have a deep rotation that hasnt been fully healthy and then shook up their rotational mix at the deadline. While the Warriors have improved their scoring attack (which ranked an uncharacteristic-for-the-dynasty 17th during the regular season) in the playoffs and surpassed Boston offensively, the Celtics have the superior postseason numbers in every other category despite playing a more difficult schedule. I performed a logit regression on NBA Finals results since 2000 while controlling for the pre-series Elo ratings of each team, and I found that a team with home-court advantage over an evenly matched opponent would be expected to win the series 57 percent of the time meaning most of the perceived advantage of home court in the historical Finals records was just an artifact of the better team also having the home court more often than not. They won six of their past seven and had found a strong rhythm playing behind Jimmy Butler and a solid core of guys who play just like him. The handicapping, sports odds information contained on this website is for entertainment purposes only. 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. Originally, the model had him on a load-management plan that would limit his minutes within each game. The Warriors do have more postseason experience, an important factor when looking at historical Finals success. But its now clear Sacramentos lofty position in the West is not a magic trick. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: 21%. The Knicks need him to be the engine of the second unit that he has proven to be when healthy. Read more . At the deadline, the Clippers added Mason Plumlee, Eric Gordon and Bones Hyland in exchange for aging John Wall and Luke Kennard. It is not a political statement, just the reality of how the NBA sends out schedules to its teams in the offseason, with home games in blue, road games in red. The New York Knicks are also moving up the table, though the numbers are still pretty long. Illustration by Elias Stein. Chase Kiddy breaks down how the NBA Trade Deadline has shaken up betting markets. Playoff and title projections: Must-see game left on the schedule: Nets at 76ers, March 10 (7:30 p.m. A blockbuster NBA Trade Deadline delivered a dump truck of showstopping news, dramatically realigning team rosters and superstar affiliations. Chase Kiddy. Randle played at an All-Star level throughout last season but has been unable to replicate it. Forecast from How this works: These forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. The Suns and Jazz, routinely at the top of the standings the past few seasons, have each moved down for different reasons. Well begin with the West, home of the defending champs. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY DAN DAO / GETTY IMAGES. By Michael Salfino. For what it's worth, FiveThirtyEight also predicted that the Warriors would miss the playoffs altogether back in October. Web FiveThirtyEight projects the Celtics to finish 58-24 with title odds of 26. Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +10000 The Warriors feel like a sleeping giant which is probably why DK is giving them the eighth-best title odds despite Golden State being the current seventh seed. Most impactful moment during the season's first half: The Harden trade. Who is the favorite to win the NBA championship? . One surprise team that fits the bill is the Cleveland Cavaliers, who elected to make no moves at the deadline. With five teams within 2.5 games of first place in the conference, and just six games separating sixth through 11th place, teams will be swapping spots in the standings on a nightly basis. As of February 21, about 14% of all Western Conference champion tickets at BetMGM were backing Phoenix; 10% of all NBA championship tickets were also on the Suns. In the most recent update of its NBA predictions, FiveThirtyEight lists the Celtics as the team most likely to win the NBA Finals this season. Rough scene. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: 13%. Boston shrugged off all the noise and came out of the gates playing fantastic basketball. Still, this +650 value will shrink (it was +800 a few weeks ago) if Denver continues to look like an elite squad. When we last saw them Atlanta has won 11 of their last 16 games to vault themselves back into the play-in conversation. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Both the Lakers and Clippers made moves up the NBA odds table in February and are now on a positive trajectory toward the playoffs. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: 0.3%. At the deadline, the Clippers added Mason Plumlee, Eric Gordon and Bones Hyland in exchange for aging John Wall and Luke Kennard. Ormaybe youre set on the Warriors. ET, NBA TV): Miami visits for the second time this season in what could be Kyle Lowry's first game back in Toronto since leaving after nine seasons this summer. Playoff and title projections: Next, we should note that RAPTOR cannot exactly predict the degree to which a team will attempt to tank this season. Tucker, but Phillys bench and Rivers deployment of that bench remains suspect. Can The NBAs Experimental Endgame Make It To Games That Count? Donis closest comparables for this season include 2003 Tracy McGrady, 2009 LeBron James and 2002 Kobe Bryant, among others. Today, they are +450. When we last saw them On Jan. 26, the Hornets scored a franchise-record 158 points. Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +300 That is lofty company to keep. The Clippers arent the only team in town that made moves. Odds Shark does not target an audience under the age of 18. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: < 0.1%. So Why Do The Advanced Stats Think He Is One? The Nets were 8-to-1 to win the title at the end of January; now, theyre 150-to-1. If they're not? Most impactful moment during the season's first half: The Bucks cruised to a comfortable victory over the Nets on opening night in Milwaukee, but it would be the only night their team was at full strength. Whether the Bulls will be able to get there before the end of the season will be crucial. As we said before, the Celtics own the best record in the league and are scoring the third-most points (117.6 points per game). They also brought in Russell Westbrook after Utah bought him out. Brooklyn Nets: Yes (-2500) / No (+950) Despite trading Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, the Nets are getting very short odds to make the playoffs and FanDuel is offering +980 odds for them to miss the postseason. If you are having difficulty accessing any content on this website, please visit our Accessibility page. 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